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Value-based care expected to see revenue increases this year, survey finds

70% of healthcare organizations are optimistic about AI's role in enabling predictive analytics and scaling VBC strategies.
By Jeff Lagasse , Editor
Clinicians talking at a hospital
Photo: katleho Seisa/Getty Images

Sixty-four percent of healthcare organizations say they expect higher revenue this year from value-based care arrangements as compared to last year, finds a new report from Innovacer and the National Association of Accountable ACOs.

Based on a nationwide survey of 168 healthcare leaders across 142 organizations, the results mark a sharp increase in confidence despite ongoing structural and operational challenges.

"As the shift to value-based care accelerates, the research highlights a critical truth: Successful transformation demands more than just intent; it requires deep investments in data, technology, and partnerships," said Abhinav Shashank, cofounder and CEO of Innovaccer.

WHAT'S THE IMPACT

More than two-thirds of healthcare organizations expect higher VBC-driven revenue this year as compared to last, while 87% of respondents cite financial risk as the top barrier to adoption, followed by provider readiness (80%), lack of interoperability (75%), and high technology cost (67%).

Seventy-four percent say greater financial support and incentives would significantly accelerate adoption, while 70% express optimism about AI's role in enabling predictive analytics and scaling VBC strategies.

The switch to VBC is already taking place, with 30% of organizations saying that a quarter of their revenue is tied up in VBC contracts, while more than 20% said at least half their revenue comes from fully capitation or downside risk contracts.

"At the foundation of accountable care and population health management lies the strategic use of integrated data that drives insights and action," said Emily D. Brower, president and CEO of NAACOS. "This comprehensive approach enables a deeper understanding of community, population, and individual patient needs."

THE LARGER TREND

A 2022 report from the Medical Group Management Association found that value-based care still only accounts for a small portion of medical revenue in most specialties.

Data from the survey found that revenue from value-based contracts accounted for 6.74% of total medical revenue in primary care specialties, 5.54% in surgical specialties and 14.74% in nonsurgical specialties.

Across all practices, the median revenue amount from value-based contracts was $30,922 per provider.

A JAMA Network study published in 2023 found that value-based Medicare Advantage models see better outcomes and better efficiency for patients, both in general and across specific metrics such as avoidable emergency department visits and readmissions.

Jeff Lagasse is editor of Healthcare Finance News.
Email: jlagasse@himss.org
Healthcare Finance News is a HIMSS Media publication.